← All articles
Gold Up 1.4% as Oil Fell: The Tuesday Risk to Watch

Forex education

Gold Up 1.4% as Oil Fell: The Tuesday Risk to Watch

By Alan Solarsh · 9 November 2026

Gold rose about 1.4% overnight, to around $4,123 by 6:30 this morning. The reason was not gold. It was oil.

What happened overnight

Trump said strikes on Iran are unlikely while talks continue. Crude oil dropped sharply. Gold went up at the same time.

Why lower oil helped gold

Lower oil means less inflation. Less inflation cuts the fear that interest rates stay high for longer. Gold pays no interest, so it does better when that fear eases. The dollar was weaker too. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for buyers outside the US, so more of them buy.

What held gold back

Stronger US job data for October pushed the odds of a December Fed rate hike to 81%. Some selling came in around $4,148.

The risk this week

US inflation. The CPI number comes out on Tuesday. A hot number would likely push gold back towards $4,000. A soft one supports more gains. Pros: news on oil and inflation often moves gold before the chart shows it, so you can plan your trade instead of reacting to it. Cons: one CPI number can undo the whole move in minutes, and a stop loss set too close is the first thing it hits.

What I do now

Before I trade gold in a news week, I check what the big banks are doing. Click the link, you land on the free COT Data page, pick gold, and see whether the institutions are buying or selling. Open the free COT Data tool PS: Trade Tuesday's CPI without a plan and one number can wipe out a week of gains.

Questions traders ask

Why does gold go up when oil goes down?

Lower oil means lower inflation, so the fear of high interest rates eases. Gold pays no interest, so it does better when rates are expected to fall or stop rising.

What is CPI and why does it move gold?

CPI is the US inflation number. A hot number makes high rates more likely, which usually pushes gold down; a soft number does the opposite.

How do I see what big banks are doing on gold?

The free COT Data tool shows the weekly positions of the big institutions. Pick gold to see if they are buying or selling. Forex trading carries risk. Past results do not guarantee future results.

Get this first on Telegram

Alan posts his daily chart analysis video and the weekly COT summary on the Alive FX Telegram channel before it goes anywhere else. Free, no sign-up form.

Join the Alive FX Telegram channel

More articles

Alive FX (Pty) Ltd · Reg No: 2015/186701/07  |  WhatsApp · +27 62 027 6139  |  [email protected]
© 2026 Alive FX (Pty) Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
Risk Warning: Trading Forex has significant risk. Past profits don't guarantee future results.